天津为何沉沦

文章正文
发布时间:2018-08-10 18:05

天津为何沉沦

2018-08-10 17:25来源:港股那点事GDP/落户/房地产

原标题:天津为何沉沦

译者:高浦铭&黄倩霞

来源:《经济学人》

Where are the people?

天津人都哪去了?

TIANJIN, a northern mega-city, has produced some of China’s wittiest comedi-ans. It is a good thing that its 15m residents have a sense of humour. Their hometown was, at points over the past decade, the fastest-growing of China’s 31 provincial-level regions. Since the beginning of last year it has been the slowest (see chart). Businesses joke that the sole part of the local economy that is expanding these days is the value of assets seized from corrupt officials. The city’s sharp deceleration serves as a stress test of China’s economic problems, and as a warning of the difficulty in fixing them.

天津是北方一个特大城市,这里诞生了一批中国最幽默的喜剧演员。1500万天津居民都有幽默感是一件好事。过去十年里,天津是中国31个省级地区中发展最快的。从去年年初开始,却变成了最慢的(见图表)。一些企业家开玩笑说,近期当地经济的增长都源自从腐败官员手中缴获的资产。天津经济增长急剧减速是对中国经济问题的压力测试,也是对其解决困难的警示。

Other areas of China are also grappling with subdued growth. Commodity-producing regions have struggled to adapt to a modernising economy, as has the rust-beltnorth-east. But Tianjin stands out as a place that should be doing better. It boasts a busy port and good universities. A skilled manufacturing hub, it has attracted firms from Airbus to Motorola. Just half an hour from Beijing by train, it is well situated.

中国其他一些地区也在努力应对经济增长放缓的问题。商品生产地区一直在努力适应现代化经济,东北部的锈带也是如此。但在这些地区当中,天津略好一些。天津有繁忙的港口和优秀的大学。作为一个技术成熟的制造中心,它吸引了空客、摩托罗拉等公司。天津距离北京只有半小时的火车车程,地理位置优越。

rust-belt 锈带以制造业为经济支柱的美国东北部,底特律,匹兹堡,克利夫兰和芝加哥等大工业城市所在的地区在上世纪70—80年代由于工业急剧衰落、工厂大量倒闭、失业率增加而使闲置的设备锈迹斑斑,被人们形象地称为“锈带”。

The problem is that the city’s planners got far ahead of themselves. They built a big new financial district, which they billed as China’s Manhattan, in the Binhai district, on the city’s far-east side. Nearly 70% of offices there are vacant, ac-cording to Jones Lang LaSalle, a property-services firm. That flatters the reality. One whole floor of the New Finance Building, a glistening complex, has been converted into “escape rooms” for adventure games. “The buildings are great,” Zhang Junkai, a port worker who lives nearby, says with a wry smile. “It’s just that we don’t have enough people in them.”

问题是天津的规划者太过好高骛远。他们在滨海区建立了一个新的大型金融区,称之为中国的曼哈顿,位于该市的远东地区。据房地产服务公司仲量联行称,近70%的办公室空置。虽然这有些夸大其辞。新金融大厦的整个楼层,一个闪闪发光的建筑群,已被改造成玩冒险游戏的“逃生室”。住在附近的港口工人张俊凯苦笑着说:“建筑很棒,只是里面没有人。”

Some 60km away, on the city’s western fringes, the waste is even more striking. A private developer wanted to create a high-tech zone, anchored by the world’s fifth-tallest skyscraper. Construction all but stopped a few years ago. The sky-scraper’s skeleton is nearly 600 metres tall, and surrounded by a dozen other abandoned building sites, which are a short drive from a fledgling polo club, itself ringed by empty luxury residences.

约60公里以外,天津西部边缘,空间浪费更加严重。一位私人开发商希望创建一个高科技区,以世界第五高的摩天大楼为标志。几年前工程停滞了。这座摩天大楼的骨架高近600米,周围还有十几座废弃的建筑遗址,距离一个新建的马球俱乐部车程很短,这个俱乐部还带有豪华住宅,但几乎都空置。

Corruption fuelled the excesses. In the city centre, Zhao Jin, a property mag-nate, paid off bureaucrats to flout zoning rules. He had permission to build three towers of no more than 35 storeys, but instead went for 66 storeys. He and the bureaucrats (some of them, anyway) are now in jail; his development, an unfinished eyesore, was listed for demolition. In another case, at the port, managers of a chemical warehouse exploited connections to pass inspections on matters from fire safety to chemicals handling. In August 2015 a massive explo-sion obliterated the warehouse and the surrounding area, killing 173.

腐败助长了过度行为。在市中心,房地产业巨头赵晋(音译)向官员行贿,藐视区域规划原则。按规定他可以建造三座不超过35层的塔楼,但他建了66层。现在,他和一些涉事官员都进了监狱。他在建的塔楼也被列入拆迁序列。另一个案例中,天津港口化学品仓库的管理人员利用关系,通过消防安全和化学品的检查。2015年8月,一场大爆炸摧毁了仓库和周边地区,造成173人死亡。

eyesore/'aɪsɔː ;ˋaɪ͵sɔr / n. something that is very ugly, especially a building sur-rounded by other things that are not ugly 碍眼的事物,难看的东西

The deadly blast seems to have marked a turning point. Huang Xingguo, mayor since 2007, was jailed last year for corruption. Li Hongzhong, Tianjin’s new Communist Party boss, has presided over a clean-up. Corruption investigations in the first half of this year have already exceeded the total for 2015. The gov-ernment has also changed its economic course. It has tightened its belt, budget-ing nearly 15% less spending this year. Once-busy building sites have attracted scavengers. Ads for metal-recycling services are plastered on construction walls in the high-tech zone.

这场大规模爆炸已经成为一个转折点。2007年起担任市长的黄兴国因腐败被判入狱。天津新任市委书记李洪忠主持了清洗工作。今年上半年的腐败调查已超过2015年的总数。政府也改变了经济政策方向。政府已经收紧了腰带,今年预算支出减少了近15%。曾经繁忙的建筑工地引来了拾荒者。高科技区贴满了金属回收服务的广告。

Tianjin, along with a handful of other Chinese regions, has admitted that its economic record was grossly inflated. Binhai, which accounts for half the city’s output, declared in January that its GDP was a third smaller than previously re-ported. Partly as a result of correcting for past fabrication, Tianjin’s annual GDP growth has averaged just 3.5% since 2017, compared with 13.5% under Mr Huang, aprecipitous drop.

天津以及其他一些中国地区,已经承认其经济数据掺杂了很大的水分。滨海占全市产量的一半,1月份宣布其国内生产总值比先前报告的数字小三分之一。部分是由于对过去捏造数据的纠正,天津年度GDP增长率平均数自2017年以来仅为3.5%,相比黄时代的13.5%下滑严重

precipitous /prɪˋsɪpətəs / adj.突然的,骤然的,急剧的

Tianjin’s woes are an extreme version of China’s. Over the past decade cities have rushed to expand. Yang Weimin, a senior official, revealed this year that, based on electricity usage, China’s housing vacancy rate is higher than Japan’s, which stands at 13%. In downtown Tianjin that is almost palpable. Colonial buildings, dating to the 19th century, have been beautifully restored. Yet they are eerily quiet. “All the units have been sold, but few people have moved in,” says a guard at the Tai’an Avenue luxury complex.

天津也许是中国的极端案例。在过去十年中,中国城市争先恐后地扩张。高级官员杨为民今年透露,根据用电情况来判断,中国的住房空置率高于日本的13%。在天津市中心,这一情况更明显。19世纪殖民时期的建筑,都被精心修复。但现在这里却出奇地安静。“所有单元都已售出,但很少有人搬进去,”泰安大道豪宅的一名警卫说。

palpable/'pælpəb ə l/ adj. a feeling that is palpable is so strong that other people notice it and can feel it around them明显的,显而易见的

The question of whether Tianjin can recover, then, is of national salience. Coming clean about its problems is a good first step. But in two other ways, the Tianjin example is worrying. First, local officials appear willing to tolerate only a limited reckoning. Tianjin, like other parts of China, has relied on government-owned companies to pay for investments. Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Deutsche Bank, has estimated that in Tianjin these companies only have enough revenue to cover about 40% of what they owe in interest, the third-worst ratio among China’s provinces. Tianjin is, he says, a “pilot experiment” for how the government will resolve its debts.

天津能否顺利走出发展困境对整个国家意义重大。首先,天津应认清问题。然而,“天津案例”却因两点令人担忧。首先,当地官员似乎只愿意批准部分账单。与其他区一样,天津靠国有企业支援来支持投资。张志伟(音译)是一位任职于德意志银行的经济学家,他估计这些天津的国有企业的收入只够支付利息的40%,这一数据在全国所有省、直辖市中位列倒数第三。他认为,天津是政府解决债务问题的试点实验市。

The experiment is not going all that well. In May two city-owned developers flirted with defaults on loans that together were worth 700m yuan ($103m). In both cases they conveniently came up with cash in the end. But some analysts saw that as a missed opportunity. In the absence of genuine defaults banks will go on lending to rotten state firms, knowing the government will always prop them up. “China hasn’t killed off this implicit guarantee,” Mr Zhang says.

但是试验并不总是顺风顺水。今年五月,分别有两家市政府实控的房产开发商草率对待总额高达7亿元人民币(1.03亿美元)的债务违约。最后,这两家都提出现金兑付的方案。一些分析人士认为,天津错过了一次改变的机会。在银行眼中,这些风光不再的国有企业并非实际拖欠,他们乐意向他们借贷,因为政府总会支撑国有企业。张志伟说道,“政府还在暗自给他们输血。”

Second, Tianjin shows that China’s preferred solution to debt problems—growing out of them—is getting harder. As the economy slows, it takes longer to digest bad investments. Binhai is not a ghost city, but it is far from attaining critical mass. The train to Tianjin’s centre is a tenth full during rush hour. The big excitement these days is that the Juilliard School, an American performing-arts conservatory, will open a campus in Binhai next year, its first such venture abroad. But it is also a marker of reduced ambitions. The Juilliard will occupy just one new building. Planners hoped that many more would house big firms by now.

其二,“天津案例”也体现了,中国政府所青睐的债务解决办法(通过大量投资而自动解决问题)已难为继。当经济放缓,要“消化”糟糕的投资项目耗时更长。虽不是鬼城,滨海新区远未达成经济发展所需的最低人口数。在通往市中心的地铁上,百分之九十的座位都空着。美国茱莉亚音乐学院将于明年在滨海新区建立第一所海外分校,这一消息令人兴奋,不过,该校只打算占用一栋建筑。城市规划者当初所期望的是,到现在为止,应该有更多的大公司搬来滨海新区的建筑里。

The appeal of Tianjin for foreign investors has waned amid soaring labour costs. Its GDP per person has passed $17,000, ten times higher than in the late 1990s, when manufacturing firms flocked to the city. Samsung, a South Korean electronics giant, once operated several factories in Tianjin. It has shifted its focus to Vietnam, where labour is much cheaper.

劳动力成本急剧增长,天津的外资吸引力降低。自上世纪九十年代末以来,大量工厂涌入天津,该市的人均GDP上涨了十倍,达17000美元。韩国的电子制造商巨头三星,一度曾在天津运转多家工厂,但现在该公司已将重心转至越南,当地的劳动力更为廉价。

It does not help that Tianjin is also one of China’s most rapidly ageing cities. Nearly a quarter of those with local hukou, or residency permits, are more than 60 years old, up from a tenth in the 1980s. As pension and health-care costs rise, social-security provisions will consume nearly half of Tianjin’s pared-down budget this year. Younger migrants have also started to drift away to faster-growing regions in China’s interior. Tianjin lost 52,000 residents last year, its first such decline in five decades.

另一个难题在于,天津是中国老龄化趋势最迅猛的城市之一。近四分之一的有当地户口的居民年龄在六十岁以上,在上世纪八十年代,这一数据为十分之一。养老金和医疗保险支出上涨,社会保障投入将会占已削减了的政府预算的一半。年轻的外来人员已开始向内陆更迅速的城市转移,去年,天津遭遇了该市50年来首次人口流失,达52000人。

In May the city made a bold move to attract young professionals. It offered hukous, usually hard to obtain in big cities, to anyone under 40 with a university degree willing to live in Tianjin. In one day 300,000 people applied. With a Tianjin hukou, they could send children to local schools, a big enticement. But many applicants simply wanted to base their families in the city. So officials added a condition, requiring applicants to work there, too. Just 5,800 applicants made the first cut.

今年五月,天津为了吸引年轻的技术人才,做出了大胆的尝试。一般来讲,在大城市落户远非易事,今年,天津开放条件,凡是想要在天津居住的人,只要年龄四十岁以下的持大学学历皆可落户。因为持天津户口者可以将孩子送入当地学校,这一政策带来巨大的诱惑。但是许多申请者仅仅想把家庭户籍迁移于此,因此,天津政府提出附加条件,还要求申请者必须在此地工作。最终,仅有5800人顺利落户。

There is one big wild card in Tianjin’s future. The central government talks of unifying it with Beijing, to create a huge city cluster. If it truly did that, and moved some government functions from Beijing, Tianjin’s office gluts could vanish, says Tin Sun of CBRE, an international property agency. So far it has taken only baby steps.

天津的未来还受制于一个未知因素。中央政府曾提及合并京津两市,打造一个巨大的城市群。田隼(音译)任职于跨国物业管理公司世邦魏理仕,他谈到“如果计划落成,北京的一些政府职能机构将会迁出,天津的供过于求的办公室将不复存在。但现在该计划尚处胎腹。

In the meantime Tianjin is trying to pick itself up. It is pitching itself to companies in Beijing as a location for back-offices. Tech firms, including Byte dance, a developer of popular apps, have based censorship teams in Tianjin. This is not the glitzy future of the city’s dreams, but it pays the rent. On July 17th, when Tianjin officials reported a grim batch of economic data, they added a rallying cry: “we must summon the courage that it takes to roll a rock up a mountain.” A worthy ambition, so long as they can avoid the fate of Sisyphus.

与此同时,天津正走在自我振兴的道路上。该市正在欢迎北京的公司将中后台部门迁于此地。包括字节跳动有限公司(流行app的开发商)在内的科技公司已经在津建立审查团队。这并非这座城市梦中的美妙蓝图,但是至少这些公司可以带来租金收入。7月17日,天津市政府官员公布了一组经济数据,情况不容乐观,紧接着这些官员慷慨激昂道:我们要众志成城,滚石上山。只要他们可以避免西西弗斯式的命运,这一追求便值得一试。

译者注:西西弗斯因为在天庭犯了法,被大神惩罚,降到人世间来受苦。对他的惩罚是:推一块石头上山。每天,西西弗斯都费了很大的劲把那块石头推到山顶,然后,石头又会自动地滚下来,于是,西西弗斯又要把那块石头往山上推。这样,西西弗斯所面临的是永无止境的失败。返回搜狐,查看更多

责任编辑:

声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,搜狐号系信息发布平台,搜狐仅提供信息存储空间服务。

阅读 ()

文章评论
—— 标签 ——
首页
评论
分享
Top